There is a speculation about the world population dropping at a considerable rate by 2100. The same will surely affect the economic, geopolitical, as well as the social scenario of several countries. The Lancet, a famous journal has published a new study regarding this speculation, and all of it makes so much sense. As a part of this study, The Lancet highlighted the findings of several expert researchers. They have presented a detailed forecast of mortality, migration, fertility rate, and population rates of 195 nations.
According to the experts, the global population will reach its peak in 2064, and the figure will be around 9.7 billion. However, it will witness a drastic drop, after which the figure will stand at around 8.8 billion. So, the estimation says that the global population will stand at 2 billion lesser than the UN reports of June 2019. Moreover, the main focus will be on 23 countries. For example, Japan, Spain, and Thailand are some of the 23 countries that will witness a population decrease of around 50% between the span of 2017 to 2100. The global population presently is 7.8 billion.
Table of Contents
The estimation of population shift
There will be a shift in the global population age group along with the rest of the aspects too. To be more precise, the projection shows that there will be a greater percentage of older adults who are of age 65 and more (2.37 billion), and younger people who are of age 20 and less (1.7 billion). The truth of these estimations will be proved by 2100. Factually, a slight drop in the massive global population is a blessing for the environment. However, the economy is speculated to suffer due to this change. The authors of the study state that the decrease in the number of adults who can work will lead to a huge impact on the economy. Probably, there will be a decline in the world GDP rates.
The maternal-fetal medicine physician at The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, Dr. Michael Cackovic states his opinion about the estimation. According to him, if there is a decline in the global population, and the aging group is predominant, it is a problem. It will mean that lesser people are a part of the workforce, which in turn will affect productivity and research. It will be a problem for the other industries too, including healthcare. The repercussions of the scenario can be slightly evaluated if you join the estimations now only.
Details of The Lancet study
The study published by The Lancet also highlights a prediction about a decline in fertility rates. According to Eurekalert, by 2100, the fertility rate in as many as 183 countries out of 195 will not be up to the mark. Therefore, it will become impossible to maintain the current rate of the population by that time. While the 2019 UN Report highlights 2.5 as the global fertility rate, it shows a considerable drop from 3.2, the figure of 1990. Further, the fertility rate estimation is to fall to 2.2 by 2050.
As per UN reports, the fertility rate of 2.1 every woman is a must if the replacement of generations has to happen successfully. The same will make sure that there will be no population decline due to a lack of immigration. The authors of the study declare that the lowering rate of fertility is a result of two major things such as women’s education, and contraception. However, they are warning everyone against population growth policies.
It is because these may disturb the freedom and rights of reproduction that women are entitled to now. Experts state that the real danger is yet to come. It means that there is a possibility that governments of certain nations may implement adoption policies to control population decline. As a result, women across the world will lose control over reproductive health rights, and service accessibility. Ultimately, in the low fertility scenario women may face a major challenge of progression. According to experts, one of the best ways of population control is to enhance economic growth through immigration. There are other ways as well of doing the same. For example, the creation of a supportive environment for women to give birth, and follow their dreams is another way to achieve the goal.